INTO THE KNOCKOUT PHASE
Partly inspired by the Chivas vs Cruz Azul analysis in @Cleon81’s thread over at the SI forums (more on that later), I looked at Turkey’s 4-4-2 setup and decided to tweak things slightly. We’d beaten them comfortably enough in the pre-tournament game, but there was more on the line here and I wanted to look at taking whatever advantage I could.
Whilst I didn’t specifically drop a player into the AMC area, to take advantage of the gap in the Turkish formation, I did further tweak the Central Winger role to encourage him to spend as much time as he could high up the pitch. Marco Fabián was given the responsibility, partly as I wanted to give Giovanni Dos Santos as much time as possible to rest up – the fixture schedule for the World Cup is just brutal.
We dominated much of the first half, but couldn’t break them down at the back. Our own defence was largely redundant as Turkey focused everything down the flanks and our wingback pairing negated them. Between them, by the end of the game, our three DCs would total two tackles whilst picking off numerous attempted through-balls and crosses; the wingbacks each dispossessed their opposing wingers four times out of four.
Sticking to the old cliché of “there’ll always be one more chance” I stuck with a patient approach, and sure enough Fierro did the business once more – a slide-rule pass to put Jimenez through one-on-one.
Rather than sit back for the last fifteen or so minutes, I removed the central DC and pushed a man into the AMC slot to keep Turkey honest. Fierro continued to impress, both as supplier and striker, but couldn’t help us engineer a second. Not to worry though, job done.
Whilst we played a day later than the match that determined our quarter-final opponents, the Swiss needed extra time to secure their berth so I was hopeful that they were likely to suffer as much as us on the fitnesss front (I could only hope!)
THE IRON MAN
A quick word about Carlos Fierro before we go any further. I suspect that anyone who played Football Manager Handheld 2013 will be familiar with the lad, I’m not sure whether he was the same in the 'full fat' version of FM2013 as I never got a save up and running on that one.
I handed him his international debut in the run up to the tournament, partly through recognition of his service to me in FMH, partly as I needed another fit striker and he was available. To date his stats in all International games are:
Apps: 4(5) Goals: 5 Assists: 3
It’s enough to make me want to carry on the save and take over at Feyenoord where he’s playing.
As near as I can get, from various free online translators, Fierro translates to Iron, although I’m also seeing references to Gun, Weapon, and Accelerator. To be fair, I’d happily apply any of them.
QUARTER FINALS
So it was time to go Swiss, and work out a plan to get around their 4-2DM-2-1-1 formation. Going through the middle looked like a tough prospect but I didn’t want to completely rebuild – once again, this save is less about winning at all costs, and more about understanding the strengths and limitations of the formation that I’m playing.
What I did do was drop one striker back into the original Shadow Striker role, just to ensure that someone was occupying the defensive midfielders to create a little disruption. I also encouraged play down our flanks; Switzerland’s wingers(?) offered them some cover out wide, but it felt like the better way to get into dangerous areas.
Of course things don’t necessarily go exactly as planned...
When Switzerland push forward they have little or no presence in the middle of the park, so those two defensive midfielders get higher up the pitch than their formation suggests. Ideal for a counter-attack, which is just what we’re playing for.
The two culprits are circled, and when we recover the ball we get to see the Central Winger (Dos Santos, G) do his thing. The run that he’ll make is indicated, along with those of the Shadow Striker (Fabián), Wingback (Aguilar), and Striker (Hernandez).
As Dos Santos peels wide(r) to the right he drags both recovering DMs with him, leaving our strikers with ‘just’ the standard defensive line to deal with. I’ve got that down as a defensive error on the part of the Swiss; although I’m not adept at identifying roles, I would expect the pair to be set up in such a way as to ensure that both don’t chase the ball.
Aguilar’s run into the area is the key, as he stays on the blindside of Reto Ziegler (Swiss DR), and it’s not until the pass is played that Ziegler turns and realises that he’s beaten. He busts a gut to recover, at which point Aguilar cleverly checks back...
Switzerland, to be fair, have recovered their shape well at this point, you can see their flat back four plus two defensive mids covering, but no-one is marking Fabián at the near post. He’s allowed to receive the ball and turn before Djourou realises his error, and worse still (for the Swiss) he’s allowed to beat Sommer at his near post to give us a crucial lead.
That allows us to try and control the pace a little, and to adopt a more cautious approach in the midfield battles. I set us to play a little slower, and to ‘Work Ball into the Box’ to ensure that we aim to maximise any chances. Switzerland appear to be trying to play the same way, but with our defensive ‘diamond’ in place they run up against a wall all too often.
I’m comfortable enough that we make no changes until late in the game, and we book ourselves a semi-final encounter with Uruguay. Unfortunately FM doesn’t seem to allow for commonplace occurrences like Luis Suarez biting someone, so we’re likely to be facing the (former) Anfield hero.
ELSEWHERE
At this point, for those who like a bit of a narrative, it’s probably worth me covering what’s gone on elsewhere in the tournament so far. Obviously we’re not looking at a recreation of the actual World Cup groups, so there are some ‘unexpected’ names in the frame.
The Group stages produced the following qualifiers into the knockout phase: Brazil, Sweden, Germany, Russia, Belgium, France, Uruguay, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Argentina, Ukraine, Switzerland, The Netherlands, Mexico, England, Italy and Turkey.
There were no real surprises in terms of teams failing to escape the groups, but Switzerland edging The Netherlands into second spot was something of a bonus for us. The Dutch look dangerous, as you can see below, so missing them at the quarter-final stage has probably been key.
The other thing that caught my eye is those two lovely 'P's against the two Uruguay results. 120 minutes played in both games, we’re going to need all the help we can get and that’s certainly a help.
SEMI-FINAL
Checking back through their recent games I noted that Uruguay tend to favour a 4-4-2 with a narrow diamond in midfield (Suarez in the AMC slot behind Hernandez and Cavani). It’s timely that this match comes the day after I spent a good amount of time contributing my own thoughts to the Sports Centre thread over at the SI Games forums (it promises to be a really useful discussion, particularly for helping to identify indicators and responses in FM, but also for general tactical awareness).
In that thread we were discussing a match in with Chivas played precisely the formation that Uruguay have been using, against a fairly flat and wide 4-4-2 that struggled to cope with it’s penetration through the middle. Although there were some differences, particularly in the placement of the wide players, my proposed counter to the 4-4-2 Diamond wasn’t altogether different from what I’m trying to achieve here – the presence of a defensive midfielder, who can be assigned to shadow Suarez constantly (as far as that’s possible) will help me a great deal, and the ability to play out through our wingbacks should allow us to stretch Uruguay’s deeper players when in possession.
I’m by no means expecting an easy game, in fact I’m already betting on a spot in the 3rd and 4th placed playoff, but at least it feels like I’ll have some ideas around how to avoid humiliation.
It feels wrong to be lining up a Starting XI who are mostly in the mid-80s in terms of condition, but there’s not a lot I can do about that. We do have a fairly fresh strike pairing available though, so if we can get the ball to them there may be some joy up front.
Of course Uruguay pull a switch on us, employing Suarez as a striker alongside Cavani, but really it’s academic. Our shape is our shape and we’ll just have to deal with whatever they put in front of us.
Immediately it looks like Suarez is being encouraged to move into the channels, either that or he’s been given full licence to roam. Either way I’m glad that we have the three at the back as it means that one can (hopefully) come across to cover him whilst still leaving two men to deal with Cavani plus any runner.
I’m expecting their DMC to be playing a fairly defensive role, given that he’s immediately dropped back beyond their fullbacks. Other than that I’m not yet in a position where I can immediately identify likely roles from images like this.
I probably should have spent time over this game watching in detail, and making lots of minor tweaks as I went, but the truth is that (1) it rarely felt like we were being seriously outclassed – despite a couple of heart-in-the-mouth moments, and (2) given the way things played out pure emotion and adrenaline took over.
Our game plan to contain the Uruguay strikers worked out brilliantly, with Suarez and Cavani combining for a total of one shot on goal. Okay, so it was Cavani through one-on-one and a heroic effort required from Ochoa to deny him, but still.
For the most part Uruguay were reliant on Cristian Rodriguez (MCL) hitting it from range, and rarely did he find his mark (one on target from six attempts). As for us it was Giovanni Dos Santos doing similar things – he finally started to do what I expected of the role, pulling wide to go around the DMC, but he developed a habit of pulling the trigger from out by the corner of the 18 yard box.
Cliché alert: It was always likely to be one moment of magic, or one slip, that decided the game.
...and I was prepared for that. What I wasn’t prepared for was for a stupid mistake from a routine set piece.
A Uruguay corner in the 88th minute shouldn’t have been an issue, but Guardado abandoned his position on the near post when he saw Abel Hernandez making a run from deep. At 5’7” Guardado was never likely to compete with the 6’1” substitute, and he never got close as the goal opened up for the young Uruguayan.
Once again I was left looking at a goal where I didn’t feel that there was a great deal I could’ve done to mitigate it. At the end of the day it was just poor decision making.
Gutted. And then, and then...
Rather than looking to run the clock down, Uruguay remained somewhat adventurous and spent the dying moments trying to work an opening on the edge of our area. One stretching pass too many and, with 28 seconds of the additional 2 minutes played, they gifted us a goal kick.
Did I mention previously how much I love Carlos Fierro?
Extra time was much like normal time, except Uruguay seemed to go into ‘Attack’ mode and start throwing men forward. Given that things had been going well, and with half an eye on extra time, I hadn’t made any changes until the 84th minute so was happy that we had some fresh(ish) legs available, the last was made on 97 minutes with an almost fully fit Adrián Aldrete coming on for Guardado at left wingback.
Hernandez was one of the earlier changes, and he made a decent run early in the first period of extra time only to screw his shot wide – causing me to curse all things Old Trafford, as you do. He was the man who started the crucial move though, dropping deep as per his DLF role and sliding a pass to Giovanni Dos Santos 25 yards out. The midfielder was immediately flattened and a free kick awarded.
I have no knowledge of Mexican players when it comes to free kicks, nor did I pause to look at their stats, I simply held my breath as Giovanni placed the ball himself, and then barely suppressed as scream as he hammered it into the top corner. Seriously, there was a guy walking down the street outside our house, and I’m pretty sure he turned to look where the yell came from.
From then on Uruguay were all hands to the pumps, throwing men forward with abandon whilst we attempted to dictate the pace and retain possession. We had the two or three fresh players though, and they played a key role – Aldrete almost putting Fierro through for a third at the death.
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| ‘Scenes’ as I believe they say... |
And so, instead of petering out with a 3rd/4th playoff that holds no interest, I’m off to my first ever World Cup final. I’ve won the Euros with England, back on CM01/02, but I’ve never been close to the biggest prize of the lot. In fact this may be the first time I've ever managed a national side in the World Cup.
Our opponents? The Dutch, who went easy on Belgium to take it 2-1 in normal time, and Louis van Gaal.
THE BIG ONE
My dislike of Manchester United was always predicated on a dislike (though not without some grudging admiration) of Sir Alex Ferguson. When he left I thought that I’d be quite happy to look at United with a neutral eye. That lasted for about a season, until watching the World Cup in fact. Louis van Gaal’s massive ego looks set to wind me up even more than Fergie. Sure, there’ll be that element of admiration for his achievements, but my God does this man love himself?
Anyway, enough, on to the preparation.
Checking back over their campaign I’m fairly safe to assume that The Netherlands will adopt an attacking 4-2-3-1, they’ve certainly done so in every match so far. Similarly to the England game that leaves me looking at potentially restricting our wingbacks to defensive duties, covering Robben and probably Eljero Elia based on recent lineups. There’s no doubt that we’re going to be spending a lot of time in our own third, and looking for chances on the break once more.
I feel bad leaving Fierro on the bench, but I’m working on a plan to use him as an impact sub sometime in the second half. Hopefully we’re still in it by then.
If anything we edged the first half, and had Hernandez and Herrera remembered their shooting boots we could’ve had a couple of goals by the break. Herrera can be forgiven, as he’s not really a finisher, but Hernandez had a glorious opportunity - his runs into the right channel creating problems for the Dutch defence from early on.
Of course we rode our luck at times, we were always going to have to do so, but at the break I was happy that we were definitely matching the Dutch chance-for-chance. LvG made one change at half time, I left things exactly as they were and kept hoping for that one moment.
In the space of 15 minutes there were multiple chances at both ends. Emanuelson hit a cross-shot in the 47th minute, beating Ochoa and hitting our bar, sixty seconds later Stekelenburg turned a Jimenez effort around his post. Ochoa then did the business for us, holding on to another Emanuelson effort before Herrera blazed one over the bar at the other end.
We were still looking relatively comfortable, with the aerial threat of Van Persie contained and Robben having one of his rare quiet games out on our left. Given that we couldn’t look to just defend our way to a result I played my first card, I was happy that our DC-DMC-DC triangle could do a job without the extra man so I withdrew Maza and introduced Giovanni dos Santos in the hole.
The Dutch were playing without a defensive midfielder, and I figured that our best hope of unlocking their defence was the extra man floating in that space. The impact was noticeable, and we enjoyed another period of pressure before making our final changes. With Herrera exhausted I dropped Dos Santos back into the Central Winger role, whilst introducing Fierro up front. I still wanted someone prowling the AM spaces though, and options were limited, so I decided to go asymmetric...
...and went with Fluid/Standard, and instructions to hold a higher line.
81 mins: Goalmouth scramble from a Dutch corner, Moreno scrambles the ball off the line for us.
83 mins: Huntelaar drops off his man and connects with a cross but can only head it across goal and wide.
90 mins: 3 minutes of added time
92 mins: Aguilar collides with Emanuelson and goes down heavily. The Physio comes on and play stops for a couple of minutes.
94 mins: Perez stops a promising Dutch build-up with a ‘tactical foul’ 35-40 yards out. Perez booked, Dutch free-kick...
(It's a little fuzzy at start, but renders nicely for the important part)
Did I mention previously how much I want to have Carlos Fierro’s babies?
So there you have it, a short-term tactical experiment that turned into me winning my first ever World Cup. I could probably have gone into more tactical detail but frankly the emotion of it somewhat took over. I think I've covered the major tactical tweaks though, and I’ve saved the PKM files for the semi-final and final, so I always have the option to come back and look at the min the cold light of day.
In the meantime I’ll be mothballing that save, and heading back to Karlsruhe to pick up for our next Bundesliga campaign. I’ll be looking to adapt the tactic that we’ve used here and put it onto our roster, and I may well be looking to see where Carlos Fierro is currently playing his football and assess whether I have any hope of tempting him to move to the western-most reaches of Germany.
Thanks for following along, normal service will be resumed as soon as possible but I am away on holiday for a couple of weeks so the blog will be quiet for a little longer than usual. In my absence, if there’s anything you’d like to give me feedback on then please feel free, either via Comments or on Twitter at @flipsix3_FM
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