Last time out you’ll recall that we’d reached the winter break in a lofty 3rd place, courtesy of one of the best scoring records in the league combined with a surprisingly effective defence – Ryan Donk making his mark in style.
Coming out of the break we’d suffered a league defeat, and then a DFB Pokal exit at the hands of FC Bayern, and I’d expressed concern that we were in danger of getting onto a bad run as we closed in on a trip to Dortmund. The slide, such as it was, was slowed by a goalless draw at home to Nürnberg but we made it four games without a win despite scoring twice against the title contenders.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, momentum – in either direction – plays a big part in FM and I was conscious that we were in danger of getting on the wrong side of the curve. Cue the visit of mid-table Köln and a game that couldn’t have gone much better...
One minute I’m preparing for the worst, the next we’re destroying the visitors and recording the first of what would prove to be a crucial six-game winning streak. Thereafter results would become more inconsistent but that run, along with the incredible first half to the season, would see us go into the last weekend of the Bundesliga assured of fourth place (and a Champions League playoff spot), and with a chance of third and guaranteed qualification for the group stages.
I’ve wracked my brains and all things considered I don’t think that I’ve ever experienced a last day like it. I’ve been in much stronger positions before, including winning 5 straight Premier League titles with Spurs (FM2005), but never with a team as unfancied as we were here – predicted 16th and battling for third.
It all came down to either Hoffenheim doing us a favour against Wolfsburg (possible) and/or us getting something in Munich (unlikely).
Henri Lansbury had our only attempt on goal, but couldn’t find a way past Neuer. At the other end we were pinned back into our own half for long periods. Bayern had 70% possession, 23 shots of which 9 required saves from Dennis Dahl – our 18-year-old wonderkid, deputising for the injured Kenneth Vermeer who’s been a massive presence for us since I snapped him up two years back.
It was not comfortable watching, I’ll freely admit, and I took no notice of scorelines elsewhere (although I did have the live-table view open). I *may* have woken my missus up when I celebrated at the final whistle.
GOOD SIGNS
It feels like things are really coming together on the tactical front. Our formation, combined with players of decent (though not exceptional) quality, has produced some really pleasing play – particularly with the Inside Forwards combining either with each other or the lone striker. Here’s a couple of nice examples, delivering exactly the sort of attacking play that I was hoping to achieve:
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| Henri Lansbury vs Schalke |
A nice simple move which see Lansbury cutting into the channel, dropping the ball to Büchel, and continuing his run to pick up the return ball from Micanski, before finishing off a neat one-on-one. Micanski has drawn both of Schalke’s central defenders and they’ll react too late to close the door in the inside-left channel.
This next one was possibly my favourite goal of the season, in terms of everything coming together. At this point we’ve already strung together 7 passes, Micanski having closed down one of Freiburg’s defensive line to recover the ball on the edge of their area, and recycled it back through our midfield.
Norwood (DLP-S) feeds it to Büchel (MC-A) and the attacking trio are lined up pretty much perfectly; as tends to happen, with Micanski ploughing a lone furrow, Freiburg’s central pairing have shifted over towards the ball-side of the pitch. Büchel will receive the ball and release a quick pass to Dennis Mast in the left channel...
...Micanski makes his run as Mast drops off his man and cuts further infield, and Van Eenoo (on the right flank) makes a good move; Freiburg’s left fullback is caught napping, watching the ball rather than his man, and Van Eenoo suddenly cuts across the front which prompts the defender to drop deeper. At that point Van Eenoo quickly checks back and then restarts his run, this time around the outside, perfectly timed to match Mast’s diagonal through ball.
That’s just two examples of the sort of interplay that we’re producing, in exactly the style that I was looking to create when I started planning towards a 4-2-3-1 tactic – something I’m not sure that we necessarily need to take the final step with.
The Inside Forwards, generally playing on the side that encourages them inside onto their favoured foot (a la Arjen Robben), often result in us effectively playing with three strikers - plus the 'Central Winger' pushing up to add to the weight of the attack. Nothing's ever perfect, but this is getting very close indeed to the tactical plan that I started to look at back when we were trying to plot our route out of the 2.Bundesliga.
There’s an awful lot of further ground that I could cover in looking back at the season. I’m going to cover quite a bit, but it certainly won’t be comprehensive – if anyone gets through this and feels that there’s some key information that they’d still like then please let me know.
OF CENTRAL WINGERS (AND THE NEW BOY)...
First up Jon Williams; brought in, primarily, as an upgrade on Büchel in the Central Winger role, he certainly had his moments but I didn’t dig too deep into his stats whilst things were ticking along nicely. Taking the time to look back at his performances now, he played 12 (plus one off the bench) scoring three times and grabbing a single assist. The main focus has to be his statistics relevant to the role he’s being employed in though – that of the Central Winger.
In @JLApsey’s original vision this is a player who dribbles through the middle of the park, pulling wide to put crosses into the box. It’s a good alternative option to having your Wingers and Wingbacks provide the delivery, but for my setup I’ve been looking to make it closer to a traditional Box-to-Box midfielder – driving through the middle from a deep(er) starting position, and becoming the central attacking man in a pseudo 4-2-3-1 attacking shape.
It works, I've showed that with Marcel Büchel, with Henri Lansbury for a limited period, and now with Williams – but one thing they all have in common is that they’re not making a lot of runs on the ball. During his time in the role Lansbury averaged two dribbles per game, Büchel clocks in at 1.35 and Williams at 1.56 (an improvement, but not a massive one).
My gut reaction is to leave well enough alone, looking at the team’s overall performances with the “if it ain’t broke...” philosophy, but I am intrigued to try and get a sense of what’s going on (or not, as the case may be). Here’s my setup for the role and, for comparison purposes, the default B2B midfielder.
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| Occasionally I'll include 'Run Wide With Ball', mainly if there's a solitary DM on the opposing team. |
To my eyes there’s not a whole lot in it, although I do notice that ‘More Risky Passes’ is automatically applied for the MC/A Role and Duty combination – this could well be a factor in the decision making process for the player (“Do I run the ball or pass?”). Switching to Support doesn’t change this so, if I’m looking to prioritise dribbling over passing (and, as a result, getting into better positions for simpler assists) then perhaps I should add in ‘Fewer Risky Passes’.
Other than that the only thing I can see that might be a factor is the roles of the players around him, which may govern his interactions. Ilian Micanski has had a fantastic season playing as the lone striker (16 Goals, 16 Assists), and for much of the campaign he was employed as a False 9 spearheading a counter-attacking approach. With him sitting that much deeper he’s often presented our midfield with a quick outlet, and I suspect that he’s been used a lot in one-twos to bypass the opposition defence. I started to look at tweaking his role later in the season, it will be interesting to see how/if that impacts the way that our MC-A plays.
ON THE SUBJECT OF THE STRIKER
I mention that I’ve started to tweak the striker role a little, this was prompted by a couple of games where I noticed that Micanski was dropping very deep indeed, particularly if we were playing on the counter. As a result the opposition defence seemed to be granted relative freedom to adopt a much higher line.
I'd prefer Micanski to sit higher up the pitch allowing for an outlet in a quick counter. Initially I’ve played with a Deep Lying Forward (Support) for a small number of games, but it’s something to look at further during pre-season friendlies and the early stages of next season. If anyone has any input regarding their favourite lone striker roles, particularly in formations such as mine where the Inside Forwards are encouraged to cut into the channels, then please feel free to share your thoughts.
Another question on my mind is whether to move towards having a two-striker option. This is prompted almost entirely by the (lack of) development of Jimmy Marton who just isn’t seeing the sort of action required to really encourage him to kick on. (Take a look at the Three Amigos update below and I’m sure you’ll see what I mean.)
My only reservation with a twin striker approach is that I just end up coming back to 4-4-2, and I’m not sure on the best way to apply this at a highly technical level. I find it easier in the lower tiers, relying on big strong Target Man players, but I’m less impressed with that approach against higher quality defenders.
It may be that something with two up front could be the basis for a decent Defensive tactic, possibly with a flat back three and wingbacks providing the width, but I’m mindful of how that makes use of our greatest strengths like Lansbury and Williams. Pondering to be done.
THE THREE AMIGOS (AND WHAT THEY TELL ME ABOUT PLAYER DEVELOPMENT)
I mentioned that Jimmy Marton’s progress is a concern, here’s an update on the Three Amigos which may highlight what I’m talking about. I’ll use their respective original screens to give a comparison of how far they’ve come.
Plenty of attributes have risen, but in two years only one (Creativity) has gone up by more than a single point. This is a player considered to have massive potential for development, working with a full complement of 4 or 4.5 star coaches, and ‘Good’ training facilities. I accept that the lack of meaningful first team action is a factor here – this season, once again, his starts have been in single figures – but that’s wholly understandable given our stature and formation.
For comparison purposes here’s Bauer ‘then and now’, a player who has had a lot of game time.
Clear evidence, if ever it were needed, that game time counts - not that this is a surprise to anyone. Given his current ability I just don’t see Marton getting that time right now, and I may have to have difficult conversations with him because I think my only solution is going to be to find him a loan placement.
As for Bauer himself, things are looking very good indeed. I’d still like to see Marking and Tackling up to 14 as a minimum, which I’ll work on again as specific training regimes, but the mental and physical side of his game are going great guns. I can see him becoming a very capable top-flight defender by this time next year.
The last addition to the Amigos crew was Martin Hasek, who is already starting to push Lucas Bijker for the starting choice on the left of our defence.
Again evidence of what first team action (not to mention International Caps) can do for player development. Big leaps in all areas, but a noticeable drop in Determination arising from me lazily following a coaches suggestion and allowing Bijker to tutor him without properly checking out the relevant details. A stupid move, and one that I’m going to struggle to redress as my only high-Det option for a tutor is one that Hasek refuses to work with. Either I have to suck it up, or see if I can bring someone in this summer who can be used.
Both Bauer and Hasek prove my point on Marton. Our Coaches range from good to excellent, although I’m yet to land a 5-star man, and our facilities should be decent enough – although I’m continuing to try and convince the board that an upgrade wouldn’t go amiss.
At the end of the day I’m either going to have to bite the bullet and try to farm Marton out for a season before he gets too old to accept such a move, or I’m going to have to develop a two-striker system that will buy him more game time.
THE OBLIGATORY SQUAD REVIEW AND PLAYER MOVEMENTS
First up Matias Cahais will be leaving us in the Summer window. Despite a number of starts he never made a telling impact, and a spell of homesickness didn’t help. Shortly before the end of the season he came to me to talk about his lack of first team football and there was only result. Whilst it’s disappointing, we’ve turned a free signing, who did a solid job for a season, into a £100k transfer fee – sure we’ve spent wages on him, but it’s not like he was among our top earners.
I won’t subject you to another squad depth chart this time around, but I did do a quick analysis of our roster. We’ll have some youngsters coming through, but no-one who looks like they’ll make a significant impact on a side pushing for the top third of the Bundesliga, let alone embarking on a European adventure. It doesn't take a genius to recognise that, however good our form has been since hitting the top flight, we need to keep making progress in terms of strengthening our squad - both in terms of quality and depth.
On that basis I’ve set about looking at the following:
- Striker – either as a rotation option for Micanski, or to play alongside him. Despite his great contributions to the side, at 31 I’m not sure that Micanski is going to be up to delivering on multiple fronts this season.
- Wingback (High Det) – a bit of a long shot, but some depth (particularly on the right side) won’t hurt, and I’d like to try and get a tutor to rectify the damage done to Hasek
- Central Defender – Donk and Bauer are now the main partnership, and with Cahais going that only leaves me Mauersberger as backup (and Bijker in a pinch). Another experienced man, like Donk, would be very welcome as we go into a very tough season.
- Attacking Midfielder (RLC?) – We have options, and I’m not desperate, but if I can find a Bosman of suitable quality – especially one who can cover multiple positions – then I’m never going to complain about having some extra depth in these areas.
Here’s a sneak preview of some of my most likely targets to date although, as we all know, a lot can change in a transfer window. I've not really started to trawl the Player Search in any real detail yet, but these guys have been on my radar for a while.
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| Possibile option to strengthen our presence in the attacking third. |
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| 48 goals in 3 seasons for PAOK. |
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| Been tracking for a while. Possible loan-back deal? |
I’m also looking at a project on Excel to try and produce some interesting player analytics, but I’m not sure how big a job that’s going to be so I won’t post anything around it until I know that it’s viable/done.
So with plenty of work to do I’ll leave it there for now, and report back at some point early next season.
Feel free, as ever, to drop me a Comment if you like – whether it be in response to anything contained in the update, or a question that I’ve not covered. You can also get hold of me on Twitter (@flipsix3_FM) if you prefer.
Cheers, and happy management - assuming that you're playing too.
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